Forex—Candle Sticks Patterns

I am not a big candle stick user, I’m not even a small candle stick user, so I found this article about candles and candle formations………..give it a read if you’re a candle trader.

Candles can tell a story and sometimes that story can lead to profits. As most forex traders know, a candle is comprised of the body (the rectangle part) showing the range between the open and close prices and the shadows (sometimes newbies call these the “wicks” coming out of the top and bottom of the body.) However not all candles are created equal some are important signals that the trend is going to end or that the market is going to take off in a continuation while others offer limited meaning or no meaning at all. Knowing what these candles and candle patterns look like is half the battle but knowing what the likelihood for a successful prediction is just as important.  

The forex candle stick pattern I will evaluate in this article is a “hammer” (as shown in chart #1.) These are bullish reversal or continuation signals. When they follow a downtrend or a downside correction within a larger uptrend it is wise to pay attention. The candle has a small body with a very small or non-existent upper shadow. The bottom shadow is more than twice the length of the body itself. The story being told here is that bears were driving the market down and at some point mid-session the bulls were able to push the market all the way back up towards the day’s open. That is a bullish signal and can immediately precede a move to the upside.

 

 

Just how likely is it that this prediction will be correct or that it can be leveraged profitably? I tested the pattern mechanically and found some interesting things. My definition of the hammer is as I described above and in the test I assumed that a trader would immediately go long on the next candle with a trailing stop of 25 pips. Whether that trade was profitable or not defined whether the pattern was successful. Here is a summary of my findings. I am interested in your feedback and questions.

Article written by John Jagerson

Summary:

The signal seems to be useful not only as a trigger for long positions but also as a risk indicator for uncovered short positions. This is useful because a trader can tighten their risk coverage in the middle of a short position in case the market does reverse. If the pattern fails that coverage can be lifted to keep profits open. Depending on your investing profile both long term and short term traders can take advantage of a signal like this to manage and time their positions.

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